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WPA Intelligence Releases Newest Round of Modeling for 2022 Election

WPA Intelligence’s first modeling refresh of 2022 hits at some of the most important issues of the election cycle. Get the intelligence needed to win through our new data dictionary models, now available in Bonfire.

 

Vaccine Mandates

Voters who are against coronavirus vaccine mandates.

Inflation

Voters who blame the Biden administration for the rise in economic inflation.

Socialism

Voters who believe that the Democratic party is becoming more socialist.

Parental Control 

Voters who believe parents should have greater influence over school curriculums.

California Homelessness Reduction Model – Candidate Support

Homelessness

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Voters who support a candidate who will compassionately but firmly reduce the outdoor homeless population, and not allow tents on sidewalks or public spaces.

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Homelessness_Msg_Broad – 13,746,209

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Homelessness_Msg_Tight – 5,730,821

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Want to learn more? Contact tsmith@wpaintel.com

Trevor Smith, PhD, named Chief Research Officer

On this Veteran’s Day, we are proud to announce that Trevor Smith, PhD, WPA Intelligence’s Director of Research and a veteran of the U.S. Air Force, has been named WPAi’s new Chief Research Officer.

During his time with WPAi, Trevor has conducted and managed the implementation of polling projects for hundreds of political campaigns and policy initiatives.

Our CEO, Chris Wilson, had this to say on Trevor’s new role:

“Trevor Smith is the glue that holds us all together at WPAi.  He is the rare combination of brilliant, humble, and indefatigable.  We’re blessed to have him on our team and our clients are the beneficiary of his immense talents.”

Trevor has been a mentor to so many along the way and a cornerstone of our team for many years. We are looking forward to all Trevor has to offer the team and our clients in his new role.

Trevor has a Ph.D. from Walden University, an MPA from Webster University, and a BA from Pfeiffer University.

WPA Intelligence Congratulates Glenn Youngkin

It has been a distinct honor for WPA Intelligence to have been a part of the Youngkin team, building the data and analytics infrastructure that helped navigate the campaign through a tumultuous nominating contest, then build a winning collation of suburban, rural, and urban voters across Virginia on Tuesday night.

Glenn Youngkin is a generational candidate who lifted the entire team around him through his optimism, indefatigability and faith.  I’ve seldom been prouder to be a part of helping elect a person to office,” commented WPAi CEO Chris Wilson.

Youngkin Polling Director and WPAi Vice President Amanda Iovino said, “This campaign was data-driven from the beginning. At Glenn’s direction we built the strongest analytics program in Virginia history, giving the campaign the ability to identify persuadable voters in every community across the Commonwealth. We used the analytics to drive the polling that showed us the messages that not only resonated with voters but motivated them to vote for Glenn, and the results speak for themselves.”

Mike Carey (OH-15) Elected to Congress

Veteran and businessman Mike Carey has been elected to the U.S. House of Representatives for OH-15. We were honored to have worked alongside the campaign on their data and analytics. Congratulations to the Carey for Congress team and our very own Conor Maguire on the victory. On to 2022 and flipping the House!

WPAi CEO Chris Wilson on Fox Business

WPA Intelligence CEO Chris Wilson appeared on Fox Business to discuss the Virginia Governor’s race, Republican prospects for 2022, and more.

Conor Maguire Named to AAPC’s “40 Under 40”

Conor Maguire, WPA Intelligence Principal and Managing Director of our DC office, was awarded the distinct honor of being named to the American Association of Political Consultant’s 40 Under 40 list for 2021. The list is maintained yearly by AAPC to highlight the efforts of strategists from both sides of the aisle.

Conor’s dedication to data and analytics, alongside his experience with competitive campaigns across the country, has made him an invaluable asset to our team. As part of WPA, Conor has maintained a commitment to serving our clients with the most sophisticated polling and analytics in the field, while leading our DC team’s efforts for campaigns and corporate clients.

WPA Intelligence CEO Chris Wilson had this to say in regards to Conor’s achievement:

“Conor Maguire has quickly proven to be a leader in the polling and data industry. Conor’s dedication is proven by the success of our clients. His leadership as part of our DC team has not only expanded our capabilities, but developed one of the most talented teams in political data. This recognition is extremely well deserved.”

Conor becomes the 5th WPA strategist to be recognized with this award, including last year’s awardee and WPA Research Director Trevor Smith as well as WPA’s Director of Analytics Matt Knee.

Poll shows Oklahomans strongly support SQ 780, criminal justice reform – Published 03/11/2021

EMBARGOED UNTIL THURSDAY, MARCH 11 AT 11 A.M. CST
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 11, 2021

Contact: Chris Wilson
csw@wpaintel.com
Office: (202) 470-6300
Cell: (202) 664-3300

Poll shows Oklahomans strongly support SQ 780, criminal justice reform, and funding for treatment and other crime prevention programs

OKLAHOMA CITY — A majority of Oklahomans support common sense criminal justice reform, according to a recent poll conducted by WPA Intelligence in February 2021. Sixty-nine percent of Oklahomans say they support criminal justice reform, and 66% believe it is important to reduce the number of people in prisons or jail.

“Oklahomans’ support for criminal justice reform is clear and consistent across party lines,” said Chris Wilson, president of WPA Intelligence. “The data show a majority of Oklahomans support reforms that would safely reduce the jail and prison population, save taxpayer dollars, and provide people who have committed nonviolent offenses with the resources and treatment they need to safely reenter their communities.”

Oklahoma has one of the highest imprisonment rates in the country, and for three decades, incarcerated more women per capita in the nation. “Sixty-five percent of respondents are more likely to vote for candidates who support criminal justice reform, and this support is consistent across party lines,” said Wilson. “Candidates put their electoral futures at risk if they do not support criminal justice reform.”

Oklahomans continue to overwhelmingly support SQ 780, approved by voters in 2016, which reclassified simple drug possession and low-level property crimes as misdemeanors. In the recent survey, over three-quarters (76%) of respondents said they support SQ 780, and 65% of Oklahomans voiced support for using additional funding to reduce crime by investing in drug or mental health treatment, education, and victim services.

In addition, of those surveyed, 78% said they support the Violence Prevention Innovation Fund (HB 2879), a bill introduced during the 2021 legislative session. The Fund would reinvest savings from sentence enhancement reform into services for survivors of violence and crime prevention programs.

“This polling further proves what we already know — that Oklahomans want smart justice reform that prioritizes treatment over longer prison sentences,” said Jonathan Small, president of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs. “Oklahomans want action on criminal justice reform, and expect elected leaders to make it a priority. Voters continue to strongly support SQ 780 and lawmakers should not pass legislation that would undo that impactful reform. Voters know we must address our state’s incarceration crisis and overwhelmingly support prioritizing reentry services or treatment to help people safely return to their communities and be productive citizens.”

The poll was conducted by WPA Intelligence, an Oklahoma-based firm with polling experience in political races across the nation, between February 22-25, 2021.

The full survey results memo can be found here.

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Ready to Deploy: SCOTUS Model

In God we trust. All others must bring data.

As we mourn the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, it is crucial for campaigns to focus on a new, high-profile and highly motivational issue that has arisen 45 days before the election: the nomination and confirmation of a new justice.

WPAi has the most extensive library of issue-specific modeling in the industry, and we are ready to deploy our preexisting SCOTUS Model to help candidates and campaigns navigate this issue, while we work to build models to assess the specifics of the vacancy, nomination, and surrounding issues.

WPAi’s existing model was developed during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight based on the following question:

Thinking about President Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, Judge Kavanaugh, are you more likely to vote for a U.S. senator who supports the President’s Supreme Court nominee, more likely to vote for a U.S. senator who opposes the President’s nominee, or is a U.S. senator’s position on whether they support the President’s nominee to the Supreme Court not something that will affect your vote?

While the circumstances differ from the Kavanaugh confirmation, understanding voter sentiment about confirming a conservative justice and identifying the strongest supporters of that confirmation are just as critical today.

Using this SCOTUS Model, campaigns can energize current voters while also identifying, targeting and mobilizing voters who do not score as likely to turnout in 2020.

Specific to mobilizing and increasing base turnout: an overlay of our Model with turnout targets (as seen below in SCOTUS Targets and SCOTUS x GOTV) can help a campaign activate critical voters to vote early or vote when they would not have otherwise turned out at all.


THE SCOTUS MODEL IS BUILT AND READY FOR DEPLOYMENT ON BONFIRE.

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Bonfire Dashboard: Strategic Advantage in One Screen

In God we trust. All others must bring data.

Last week, WPAi proudly announced the launch of Bonfire, our no-nonsense, seriously innovative data management platform. Bonfire is the backbone for a winning organization’s data management – allowing you to store, view, and explore your data right when you need it.

The Bonfire Dashboard is your home base within Bonfire. The insights gained from the Dashboard can make your queries smarter and faster when you work within your Arsenal. Dashboard transforms your data into three easy-to-read graphics: Turnout Likelihood, Top Scores, and Demographics.

So, the next time you have only five minutes before your weekly strategy call, Bonfire’s Dashboard is the quickest and most efficient way to conceptualize your data – all on your own, in real time.


Turnout Likelihood

If you’re most interested in whether or how an individual is likely to vote, you can utilize the Turnout Likelihood section of your Dashboard. Here, you can instantly grasp the relative density of likely voters for targeting. Such as, should your next mail piece or digital ad be sent to a Persuadable Universe or a GOTV Universe? Or both?

PS: You can also do a quick estimate of universe sizes to explore at a greater depth in the Arsenal page.


Top Scores

But what should you talk to voters about? That’s where Top Scores come in.

This list, for instance, allows us to see how many individuals in your region likely care more about school choice than all other issues.

Top Scores are pulled from our collection of national issue models, and they’ll help calibrate your messaging and serve as your go-to resource for the development of niche communications.


Demographics

Last, but certainly not least, the Demographics section takes a bird’s-eye view of your entire data segment.

Pro tip: by hovering over any one bar you can see a count of any of the overall demographics in your region.

While much of Bonfire is dedicated to the granular details necessary for victory, Dashboard is the place where you can take a step back and look at the big picture. (Read: the quickest way to prep for your last-minute Zoom meeting.)

Next, we’ll look at the Arsenal – where specifics come to out to play.

IN THE MEANTIME, CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT BONFIRE OR TO GET STARTED.

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