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The Icosahedron #9 ft. Trevor Smith, Ph.D. on National Data Trends

Thanks for reading our newsletter! In this issue, Research Director Trevor Smith, Ph.D., provides insight on the latest national data, and how we’re helping our clients navigate the climate. For intelligence like this and more, contact us and we’ll connect you with a member of our team.

A PSA on National Data Trends

By Trevor Smith, Ph.D., Research Director

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been analyzing various polls to provide the best insight possible overall and among key demographic groups (consider this your pocket-sized meta-analysis of national polling).

This report has two sections: 1) Key Groups & Breaks to Watch and 2) Coronavirus.

Key Groups & Breaks to Watch (Rolling Together June 25-July 7 National Polls)

Seniors (65+): In the past six elections, these voters favored the GOP, from +2 in 2018 to +8 in 2008. The last time we ran even among seniors was in 2006.  

 

 

 

In the latest average, Republicans are near even with Democrats. This is a great concern at the moment and the GOP must figure out a way to be less like 2018 and more like 2016 with this group of voters.

Ignoring the current average, we think there is a mode effect happening between the Economist/YouGov polls (all online panel) versus everyone else.

On the Generic Congressional Ballot:

  • Economist/YouGov – 16 polls since mid-March, GOP 50% and DEM 43%
  • All Else – four polls since mid-March, GOP 43% and DEM 51%

There is clearly a disparity in the number of live versus online polls, but the difference is interesting and something we are watching.  

White Voters Overall: In the 2016 election, President Trump won Whites by 20% and in 2018, Republicans won Whites by 10%. The data currently suggest Republicans are currently behind on the ballot compared to these markers.

Generic Congressional Ballot: +6%
Presidential Ballot: +6%

White Voters Broken Out by Education: White voters are not a monolith. One significant break within white voters is that of Whites without a college degree versus those with a college degree. In 2016, President Trump won Whites without a college degree 66% to 29% and Whites with a college degree 48% to 45%. 

In the most recent average
: 

  • No College Degree  GOP is +21 on the Generic Congressional Ballot  
  • College Degree – GOP is -23% on the Generic Congressional Ballot 

We are watching these two groups of voters and identifying how our clients can widen our lead among those without a college degree and decrease our current disadvantage among those Whites with a degree.

The WPAi Solution

Republicans need to find out which messages bring these different subgroups of voters back into the fold. Typical polling lets you look at the cross tabs and figure out which messages voters say moves them.

But WPAi’s Message MapTM methodology allows our clients to dig deeper and find out which messages actually move different groups of voters. Not only that, our Message Maps help clarify which messages will cut through the noise of a busy campaign and news cycle – vital intelligence for any candidate or group looking to make meaningful impact in a race.

Coronavirus

According to Civiqs, concern about the Coronavirus appears to have leveled off around 62% throughout July but, more importantly, every single national demo shows roughly equal concerns (between 55% for Whites to as high as 88% for Democrats and Blacks) except for Republicans (33%). This lack of concern among Republicans compared to other parties is consistent across almost all states.

Overall Concern, Nationally 

 

Additionallythis Republican split is also evident when it comes to satisfaction of the federal government’s response to the pandemic: Republicans are 72% satisfied, Democrats 5%, and Independents 35%.

Voters 65+ are the most satisfied (44%) compared to other age breaks: 50-64 (41%), 35-49 (33%), and 18-34 (22%). The combination of high levels of concern and satisfaction with the federal government’s response among 65+ could be an opportunity to consolidate support amongst seniors alongside more typical campaign messaging. 


Satisfaction with Federal Government Response

There are currently two Americas when it comes to issues around the Coronavirus: Republicans, and everyone else. Moving forward, it will be important to see how Independents continue to respond to various events regarding the Coronavirus.

The WPAi Solution
We are finding that a message hitting Democrats on China stealing intellectual property and technology from American Companies and covering up the COVID-19 pandemic, delaying worldwide response, is having the intended effect of moving voters toward our ticket. China is increasingly viewed negatively by members of both parties (Pew Research), and given the Chinese Communist Party’s cover-up of the virus in the early months, Republicans can highlight how China has been, and will continue to be, held accountable. 

Therefore, we have developed a model of voters who are most likely to blame China for the pandemic and want to hold the country responsible. These voters will be most receptive to campaign messaging that blames China and will want a leader to hold the CCP accountable. This universe is available nationwide and can be overlaid with any custom or Data Dictionary models available on our website.

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WPAi Research Finds Strong Support for Online Learning Among Missouri Parents – Published 07/16/2020

Parent Survey Reveals Strong Support for Online Learning; Growing Concerns Over More School Closures Due to COVID-19
By National Coalition for Public School Options
Webster County Citizen, Published 07/16/2020

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo., July 16, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — A new statewide survey released today finds Missouri parents overwhelmingly support policies that protect and expand access to online public schools as a means to protect the health and safety of families during the pandemic.

These results come as many school districts in Missouri have been denying families the right to choose the best educational option for their child, including by abusing the veto authority over enrollment provided under the Missouri Course Access and Virtual School Program (MOCAP).

The survey revealed that:

79% of parents oppose giving school districts “veto power” over a parent’s decision to enroll their child in a full-time online school: and
75% of parents support the state of Missouri granting emergency waivers for parents who wish to enroll their student in an online public school this fall.
Beyond the broad support for expanded access to online schools, parents are worried about the health impact of schools reopening. 57% of parents said they remained very concerned about risks due to COVID-19, while 75% of respondents anticipate additional school closures in the fall.

These concerns are being translated into significant support for online public schools, with 43% of respondents noting they’d be willing to consider this educational option for their own child. Based on 2019 enrollment data, that would mean more than 390,000 students may not return to their traditional classroom as parents become more familiar with online learning options.

The survey sampled 400 Missouri adults with children at home. The survey was conducted June 28 – July 6, 2020 by WPA Intelligence for the National Coalition for Public School Options (PSO). The survey has a margin of error of ± 4.9%.

Read the full article here.

Five Things Republican Women Candidates Should Know

You should know that…


…it’s less of an exclusive club (which is a *very* good thing). There are more Republican women running for Congress than ever before. 224 women have stepped up to run. This number is a huge win for the NRCC, its Recruitment Chair Susan Brooks, Rep. Elise Stefanik, and outside groups like Winning For Women (WFW) and VIEW PAC.

…there is more support for you than ever before. Republican groups have really stepped up for Republican women during this primary season. VIEW PAC and Stefanik’s E-PAC have been helping women candidates raise the hard dollars they need for their campaigns and WFW’s Super PAC uses Independent Expenditures in support of their endorsed candidates.

…you need to emphasize your grit to Republican voters. Primaries are often the toughest hurdle for Republican women to clear. Fundraising is tougher because donors wait to see who emerges, and voters can often perceive women candidates as too moderate. How do you overcome that? First, target your messages on the issues to those who care about those positions (check out our Data Dictionary options for this). Then, show your authentic grit. Primary voters often want to see someone with the toughness to stand up to the Left. Tell voters where you stand on the issues and, importantly, tell them why you care and why you won’t back down from your position.

…your gender can be a tool to use to connect with voters, including in primaries. Republicans are not known for buying into the Left’s concept of identity politics, but there are voters (men and women) who believe the world would be better off if more women were in charge. In general elections, more voters see women candidates as outsiders and agents of change. In primaries, this is a niche message that needs to be expertly targeted. That’s where we come in (check out how our digital team is changing the game).

…we’re here to help. WPAi’s Cleopatra model identifies the voters who most believe that women can and should be running things. Restricted to primary voters or opened to include general election voters, Republican women candidates and their campaigns can use their gender as a tool to connect with these individual voters. This model is as close to turn-key ready as you can get: You have a clear, authentic, easy to execute message that will resonate with a targetable group of voters. Reach out today to learn more!


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Five Things to Know About Independent Voters

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President Trump Still Has a Chance in November – Published 06/24/2020

Trump is in a precarious position for re-election – but he still has a chance
By Daniel Strauss
The Guardian, Published 06/24/2020

To an extent, the Trump campaign has already begun to pivot in its approach. Trump’s campaign has tweaked a key pillar of its message, now promising a “great American comeback” after the catastrophic financial downturn coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.

The economy is a longtime silver bullet for American political campaigns. James Carville, the strategist for Bill Clinton, propagated the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” and for the operatives who see a hidden path for a Trump victory, it’s through the economy.

“If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson.

Read the full article here.

U.S.-China Policy & the 2020 Election – Published 06/23/2020

China Is Going to Be a Big Issue in the 2020 Campaign. But What Does That Mean?
By Ben Jacobs
New York Magazine, Published 06/23/2020

Democrats are sensitive to some of these concerns, particularly at a time where Trump is openly referring to the coronavirus as the “kung flu” at campaign rallies. As Ian Sams, a Democratic strategist who advises Navigator Research, warned, “I think you have to be careful how you talk about this. You don’t want to encourage racist or xenophobic tropes or stereotypes.” This concern was echoed by Bannon. “I do think the left has got a point [about being careful about language],” the former Trump strategist told Intelligencer. “This is not about China or the Chinese people. This is about the Chinese Communist Party.”

However, it’s still unclear how much U.S.-China policy motivates voters and whether there are many single-issue voters on the issue. In data obtained by Intelligencer from WPA Intelligence, a top Republican data firm, modeling shows that 21 percent of the electorate could be moved by a campaign message focused on “holding China accountable.” However, it would be counterproductive for 23 percent of voters. In particular, in the key Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the rhetoric shows mixed effectiveness. In Michigan, 16 percent of voters would be responsive to a “tough on China” message and 12 percent would recoil, and in Pennsylvania, those numbers are 29 percent and 28 percent. But in Wisconsin, such a message would resonate with only 8 percent of voters and be counterproductive with 25 percent of the electorate.

Read the full article here.

The Value of Trump Rallies: Data – Published 06/16/2020

The other reason to restart rallies: Trump #MAGA events are voter data gold mines
By David M. Drucker
Washington Examiner, Published 06/16/2020

Trump’s high-wattage stadium rallies are intricately choreographed political revivals, with the president’s habit of ad-libbing provocative comments often sparking days of public discussion. But underneath the hood, the Trump campaign is using interest in the “#MAGA” events to gather reams of granular data on voters. That information, in turn, is used to recruit grassroots volunteers, test messaging, and decide how and where to invest in manpower and money to increase the president’s vote share.

“The rally lists are an invaluable source of data that help power volunteer efforts and small-dollar fundraising,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster and data consultant who advised the Ted Cruz presidential campaign four years ago.

“You have people who have already gone out there and taken a public action to support the president,” Wilson explained. “Those folks are a lot more likely to continue doing things than are your typical list targets who have just signed up as supporters online.”

Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally this Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma — his first since mid-March, when in-person political activities were suspended because of the coronavirus. Capacity at the arena, Bank of Oklahoma Center, is just under 20,000. But Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale bragged Monday in a Twitter post that more than 1 million people submitted an RSVP to attend the event.

Read the full article here.

Reopening & Re-Election – Published 05/28/2020

Reopening the Economy Now Is Donald Trump’s Last Hope of Entering the 2020 Election With Good GDP Data
By Shane Croucher and James Walker
Newsweek, Published 05/28/2020

President Donald Trump’s push for states to swiftly reopen may be the best chance he has of entering the 2020 election with positive economic data and, if the rebound is strong, some of the largest numbers on record.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of third quarter GDP data on October 29, less than a week before America votes. June is the final month of the second quarter during which analysts expect the economy to contract by around 40 percent.

If the U.S. economy has substantially reopened by July, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate could reach above 20 percent, per some of the more optimistic forecasts, offering a vital boost to the Trump campaign in what is shaping up to be a close-fought election.

“It’s probably a game-changer for the president, and I think you could see the race tighten immediately, if not Trump moving into the lead because of that,” Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence and a Republican strategist, told Newsweek.

Read the full article here.

Biden’s Preemptive Exit Strategy – Published 05/17/2020

Biden’s VP search puts spotlight on how long he’ll serve
By Will Weissert
The Associated Press, Published 05/17/2020

There’s also no guarantee that Biden’s running mate will be the immediate president-in-waiting he envisions. Biden has pledged to pick a woman, but virtually no one under active consideration is likely to satisfy all Democrats. That raises the prospect of a primary battle in 2024 if he steps aside.

Republican pollster Chris Wilson said Biden might elevate several younger Democrats to Cabinet positions to deliberately set up “almost a hand-picked primary pool rather than a single candidate he tries to hand things off to.”

That, Wilson said, “would still be the kind of legacy-building move he seems to be interested in.”

Read the full article here.

POLL: 64% of Nevadans Support Gov. Sisolak’s Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic – Published 05/07/2020

Poll: Sisolak praised, but Nevadans want virus shutdown to end
By Colton Lochhead
Las Vegas Review-Journal, Published 05/07/2020

The Nevada Poll™, conducted for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com by WPA Intelligence, found 64 percent of Nevadans support Sisolak’s approach to the pandemic and his handling of the shutdown of nonessential businesses across the state, compared with 28 percent who disapprove.

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters in Nevada from May 2-5, with party demographics of the respondents mirroring Nevada’s voter registration breakdown of 33 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat and 29 percent as nonpartisan or third-party voters. Its margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted after Sisolak announced the extension of his closure order to May 15, but before his Thursday announcement that the state’s first phase of reopening would occur before May 15.

Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence, said the Nevada results were consistent with the support seen in other states for their respective governors.

“There’s support for the governor, and almost a patriotism within the state about how the state can band together,” Wilson said.

Read the full article here.