News

Trump attacks take a toll on Black Lives Matter support
By Laura Barrón-López
Politico, Published September 2, 2020

President Donald Trump has spent weeks attacking the Black Lives Matter movement, and it’s moving the polls — though not necessarily in a way that boosts his electoral chances.

Voters’ favorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement has dropped by 9 percentage points since June, including a 13-point dip among Republicans, according to new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. The shift comes after the recent police shooting of another Black man: Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., last week.

Trump’s recent emphasis on the protests in cities like Kenosha and Portland, Ore., isn’t exactly to his political benefit. Despite Trump’s attempts to cast himself as the law-and-order candidate since George Floyd’s killing in May, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows more voters trust former Vice President Joe Biden over Trump to handle public safety, 47 percent to 39 percent.

Voters also prefer Biden on race relations by a 19-point margin. Though a narrow majority of voters still view the Black Lives Matter movement favorably, bipartisan support has eroded over the past two months, as Trump has encouraged police violence against protesters, called the Black Lives Matter movement a “symbol of hate,” “discriminatory,” “Marxist” and “bad for Black people.” This week, Trump has tried to pin blame on Biden for violence in American cities.

The dip in support for Black Lives Matter, reflected across multiple polls in recent weeks, doesn’t come as a surprise to activists nor Democratic pollsters who expected Republican backlash to the movement’s newfound support. Favorability for Black Lives Matter dropped from 61 percent support in June to 52 percent now, according to the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted Friday through Sunday.

“This is the direct effect of the strategy of Donald Trump and Fox News,” said veteran Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher. “The movement to a certain extent, over the last month or so, had been losing ground in controlling the narrative.”

The protests were “resoundingly successful” in creating an “inflection point” around racism, Belcher said. But the drop in favorability, he continued, comes as Trump increasingly describes the protests as “violence” and “anarchy,” rather than about police brutality and racial injustice.

“That is a huge problem for Donald Trump — if he’s in fact trying to be the safety and law and order candidate, and he’s losing in the public mind on that front,” Belcher said.

Since Blake was shot seven times in the back by police last month, protests have continued in the state, and riots have resulted in businesses burned to the ground or vandalized. Last week, a white teenager, Kyle Rittenhouse, allegedly shot three protesters, killing two, during the third night of demonstrations in Kenosha. Trump has not condemned Rittenhouse — who on social media promoted “Blue Lives Matter” and support for the president — despite the criminal charges against him, and the president has largely remained silent on the shooting of Blake. During his visit to Kenosha on Tuesday, Trump did not meet with Blake’s family but held a roundtable with local law enforcement.

Republicans are betting Trump’s “law and order” playbook — which echoes 1960s-era GOP strategies on racial divisions for which the party later apologized prior to Trump’s ascendance — will benefit him electorally, energizing his predominately white base and appealing to the white women Republicans lost in 2018. As unrest in Kenosha unfolded last week, departing White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said that increased “chaos” and “anarchy” would boost Trump’s reelection prospects. But there’s been little evidence to date, including in the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, that Trump’s bet is swaying voters.

“As President Donald Trump continues to drive his ‘law and order’ message amid a new wave of civil unrest following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a comfortable trust advantage over the incumbent when it comes to who voters trust to handle public safety,” said Kyle Dropp, co-founder and chief research officer at Morning Consult.

Republican pollster Chris Wilson asserted the shift in support for Black Lives Matter “does put Biden at risk” as unrest continues in Democratically-run cities. But Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence, said the data shows “that the protests are more an opportunity than automatic win for Trump.”

“[Trump] has to navigate both a rhetorical and policy obstacle course to show the right amount of strength and engagement in protecting Americans and their property, without veering into ignoring the underlying issues that Americans believe exist and justified the protests before they turned violent,” Wilson said. “But this is the first issue in months that has the real possibility of shaking up the election and giving Trump the ability to make big gains.”

Overall, the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows Trump with a 42 percent approval rating, unchanged from last week, before the Republican convention. The poll surveyed 1,988 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Biden addressed Trump’s attacks and the racial reckoning across the country on Monday. “Does anyone believe there will be less violence in America if Donald Trump is reelected?” Biden said in a speech in Pennsylvania. “We need justice in America. And we need safety in America.”

Morning Consult’s latest presidential tracking poll shows Biden 8 points ahead of Trump, equal to his lead before both conventions last month. Some other public surveys do show a slight tightening in the Biden-Trump race, though there is still a lack of direct data tying the protests or shootings of civilians in Kenosha and Portland to Biden or Trump’s standing electorally.

Cliff Albright, co-founder of the voter engagement group Black Voters Matter, which is one of hundreds of organizations engaged in the movement, considered the dip in support for Black Lives Matter “predictable” and said it could provide a needed gut check on “overconfidence” among Democrats.

“We don’t want to underestimate Trump,” he said. “But also [we’re] not getting carried away by some of the messaging and some of the poll variation that we’ve seen.”

Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury said a recent statewide poll in Georgia conducted by his firm, HIT Strategies, found 79 percent of voters in the burgeoning battleground state believe racial and ethnic discrimination is a problem in the country.

“The problem is that safety and security and crime are not at the top of white women, suburban women’s priority list. Covid-19, economy and racism remain at the top of their priority list,” said Woodbury. “One reason why reduction in support for BLM doesn’t necessarily equate to reduction of support for Biden is that Biden isn’t running to be president of BLM voters.”

Activists dismiss much of the polling on Black Lives Matter, pointing to the low public support in the 1950s and 1960s for integration, the March on Washington and sit-in demonstrations during the civil rights movement.

And another poll released Wednesday by Grinnell College found that when the issue of racial inequality was framed around victims of police violence, respondents’ views of the current state of racial equality changed. When those surveyed were reminded of Floyd’s death, those who said the country is “very close,” “pretty close” or “already there” on full equality for African Americans dropped from 50 percent to 31 percent.

The Grinnell College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters, 49 percent to 41 percent, matching his margin in Morning Consult’s latest polling.

“[Trump] probably should be running against Joe Biden, instead of the movement, if he wants to win in November,” said Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party and a leader with the Movement for Black Lives coalition. “Movements do not exist on electoral timelines. This is the tension, and the movement for Black lives is much longer and will have much more of a deeper impact than in one president and one election cycle.”

This article was originally published here.

Trump’s biggest roadblock to reelection is COVID-19
By Jonathan Easley
The Hill, Published August 24, 2020

President Trump’s biggest obstacle to winning a second term in office is the coronavirus pandemic, which has dramatically altered the course of the presidential race and raised serious questions about his leadership.

Trump and his campaign have sought to contend with criticism by arguing that China is to blame for the global spread of the virus and that the U.S. government has done everything in its power to steer resources to states.

The president has repeatedly highlighted his decision to cut off travel from China and Europe, noting it was criticized at the time but was then followed by other countries.

Republicans believe Trump will have a compelling and optimistic story to tell at the national convention this week about the extreme measures he’s taken in pursuit of a vaccine, but there are real questions about whether the Trump administration took the virus seriously when it first arrived in the U.S., and polls reflect voter disappointment with the White House.

More than 170,000 people in the United States have died from COVID-19, more than in any other country. The nation has had 5.5 million cases and counting. Beyond the terrible death toll, the pandemic has wrecked the economy and interrupted life, preventing children from going to school and curtailing everything from summer evenings at the ballpark to date night at the weekend movie blockbuster.

The federal government has struggled to get up to speed on testing. Trump has publicly battled with his own medical experts and government agencies. And his messaging about the virus has been all over the place.

A majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the pandemic and most voters say they trust Democratic nominee Joe Biden to lead on the matter.

“Trump looked at this through a political lens, and when you do that on a matter as serious as public health, you expose yourself to a downside you cannot control,” said former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. “That’s where Trump finds himself now. It doesn’t matter the narrative he tries to spin or what his surrogates go out and say. There are more than 172,000 dead Americans and more than 5 million people have been infected.”

Experts say the federal government failed to recognize the potential for a pandemic when the first U.S. case was identified in January.

The Food and Drug Administration did not approve a coronavirus test until weeks later and the government has been slow to get up to speed on testing and contact tracing ever since.

Experts say social distancing, travel bans and quarantines needed to be broader and implemented earlier.

Biden and Democrats have pointed to those failures to argue that the virus hit the U.S. much harder than it should have because of Trump’s leadership.

Not all of the failures fall on Trump.

The coronavirus is new, highly contagious and still a mystery to immunologists. The virus spread quickly from Wuhan, China, with little warning or transparency from Chinese officials.

There was confusion early on, even among medical experts and the news media, about the seriousness of the virus and the effectiveness of masks.

The states have overseen their own slow and fragmented responses. The virus exposed long entrenched problems in the U.S. medical system and supply chain.

But Trump exacerbated confusion around the pandemic by publicly clashing with his own experts and only recently embracing masks.

Early on, the president spoke about how the virus would go away on its own and he talked down the seriousness of it.

Trump promoted unproven therapeutics and his rhetoric has contributed to the politicization of the virus, with Republicans less likely to wear masks or to view the virus as a serious health threat.

The sum total has been to drag Trump down in the polls, where he faces a wide gap against Biden among independents and moderate suburban voters.

The latest CNN survey found disapproval over Trump’s handling of the pandemic at a new high of 58 percent. The poll found Biden leading by 4 points in a head-to-head match-up with Trump but leading by 9 points on the coronavirus.

A recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey found that 53 percent of voters believe Trump did not take the coronavirus seriously from the start, up from 45 percent in April. Sixty-one percent in that poll described the U.S. response as unsuccessful.

Governors, even in hard-hit states, have better coronavirus approval ratings than Trump.

“I think any president facing a serious pandemic would see their ratings slip,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster. “We’re not a particularly patient or cooperative country and unfortunately there are things that just don’t have policy solutions – like pandemics. But people have been so trained to think the president can do anything they hold him responsible.”

This article was originally published here.

Conor Maguire Promoted to Principal and Managing Director
By Chris Wilson, Partner and CEO
August 17, 2020

Today, WPA Intelligence, a national leader in survey research, predictive analytics and data science, is pleased to announce the promotion of Conor Maguire to the role of Principal and Managing Director. His years of experience in leading client strategy as well as research and data science teams will continue to serve our clients at WPAi.

In 2017, Maguire joined WPAi after three election cycles in the Republican National Committee’s Data Division. Maguire served the RNC as the Director of External Support, working to directly implement the GOP’s state-of-the-art data program across the country and within major campaigns up and down the ballot. Maguire also served as the data liaison to the Trump for President campaign, facilitating the flow of information and deployment of critical resources, contributing significantly to a banner election year which saw the Republican Party win the White House while maintaining majorities in both chambers of Congress.

In addition to Maguire’s tenure at the national party committee, he has worked on competitive campaigns across the country, lending him the critical experience of on-the-ground campaigning coupled with the implementation of data-driven programs at all levels of politics.

“Conor Maguire has earned the right to be a Principal of our firm, and Managing Director of our DC office. He has quickly become a leader of our team”, said Chris Wilson, WPAi’s CEO. “Our continued commitment to serving our clients with the most sophisticated polling, data analytics and technology solutions, paired with unrivaled strategic guidance, is bolstered by Conor’s work. Conor’s years at WPAi and extensive experience with the RNC provide him with exceptional credentials that will continue to be invaluable for our clients in the political, public affairs, and corporate space.”

Maguire added, “Having worked on critical races up and down the ticket, I know what it takes to win. WPAi brings to the table a unique and succinct approach to traditional polling by incorporating an intelligent use of data. I am eager to continue to deliver unparalleled insights and to lead our clients to victory.”

See the announcement in Politico here.

Key Takeaways from Trump’s Evolving Campaign Strategy
By Patsy Widakuswara
VOA, Published July 31, 2020

WASHINGTON – With several polls showing Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden leading the U.S. presidential race nationally, in battleground states and among key demographics, President Donald Trump’s campaign is seeking a more effective strategy to win over voters.

After spending weeks pushing to reopen the economy, the president now appears to be acknowledging the coronavirus pandemic will continue to drive news cycles through the final 100 days of the campaign.

Here are a few key takeaways from Trump’s evolving re-election strategy.

Refocus on pandemic

Polls indicate that public approval for the president’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is falling to a new low — with just around one third of Americans supporting his approach which emphasizes reopening.

In the past two weeks, the president has returned to making regular appearances before journalists, putting himself forward as spokesperson for his administration’s response to the pandemic.

The president has canceled the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville, Florida, because of the growing COVID-19 outbreak there. He also acknowledged that some schools may need to delay their reopening, and has recommended Americans wear masks in public.

Republican strategists say it’s an admission that the president has few options but to refocus his attention on the pandemic.

“It’s really difficult as a campaign to focus on a message when there’s nothing else you can talk about than what is on the minds of really of everybody in America,” said Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence in an interview.

Staying “on message” is how politicians traditionally have helped build support for their causes, but Trump has long had a more freewheeling political style. On Monday this week he returned to his emphasis on ending the lockdowns in some states.

“I really do believe a lot of the governors should be opening up states that are not opening,” Trump said during a visit to a vaccine development facility in North Carolina. “We’ll see what happens with them.”

By Thursday, he again appeared to have reversed himself on the severity of the pandemic.

He suggested that the November elections should be delayed to ensure people can safely vote in person, even though the Constitution allows only Congress to schedule elections. Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders rejected the suggestion and vowed the election will be held as scheduled.

Renew push on vaccines and therapeutics

Both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence visited vaccine development facilities this week as the White House pressed its message that the nation is close to defeating COVID-19.

During a coronavirus press briefing on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. is on track to “rapidly produce” 100 million doses as soon as a vaccine is approved “which could be very, very soon.” He said 500 million doses will be available “shortly thereafter.”

There are currently more than 100 scientific groups around the world trying to make vaccines, including Pfizer and BioNTech which have started large-scale trials in the United States. But most experts agree that having a safe and reliable vaccine available before the November election is unlikely.

“There is progress on a number of fronts,” said William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “We’re optimistic, but everything has to go well in vaccine development.”

While a vaccine is under development, the president is still pushing other treatments aimed at reducing the severity of COVID-19. This week he again championed hydroxychloroquine — an anti-malaria drug that Trump and his allies have been pushing as a COVID-19 treatment.

So far there is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine helps to prevent COVID-19 infection, said former Food and Drug Associate Commissioner and co-founder of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest, Peter Pitts. However Pitts told VOA recent studies have shown that it may help shorten hospital time for patients who suffer from serious manifestations of the virus.

Analysts say that Trump advisers see messaging on vaccines and therapeutics as the quickest way to restore confidence in the president.

“The plan is to present certain drugs that are unproven as useful therapeutics until they have a vaccine,” said Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics to VOA.

Sabato said the lack of scientific data to support the claim is immaterial. “For Trump supporters, he is their source of information.”

Continue “law and order” approach to US protests

With Black Lives Matter rallies and protests continuing in many cities across the United States, the vast majority of them peaceful, the president has also sharpened his attacks on what he has called “radical left anarchists” and the danger they allegedly pose to the country.

“This bloodshed must end, this bloodshed will end,” Trump said.

In Portland, local officials blamed the presence of federal law enforcement officers for worsening conflicts with protesters. After days of clashes, the city struck an agreement for the federal troops to withdraw.

But analysts see the larger standoff continuing, with the Trump campaign arguing that cities with regular protests are in fact in chaos and need a “law and order” commander in chief, said Omar Wasow, a professor of race and ethnic politics at Princeton University.

“Trump is working in a tradition that we’ve seen internationally, of using conflict as a way to try and mobilize your side,” Wasow told VOA, pointing to Trump campaign advertisements using footage of the protests to portray Biden as soft on crime.

“Clearly, they think it’s a good campaign issue for them,” Wasow said.

Settle on a Biden Strategy

Traditionally, presidential campaigns kick into high gear and intensify attacks on their opponents after the Republican and Democratic conventions in August, and as the candidates meet on the debate stage.

“Biden has his share of controversies and he’s been around a long time, but he is not a clear image in the minds of most voters,” said Larry Sabato. “Trump’s goal in the debates and in his advertising, is to dirty up Biden, to make him appear as unsavory as Donald Trump appears to be unsavory to millions of people.”

So far there are two main attack themes; that “Sleepy Joe” Biden is mentally unfit to be president and that he won’t keep Americans safe against crime and lawlessness.

A recent poll finds that 52% of voters are somewhat confident that Biden has the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job of president compared to 45% for Trump. However, more are likely to say they feel very confident about Trump (33%) than Biden (23%).

“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters. This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

But the strategy of a 74-year-old incumbent attacking his 77-year-old challenger is risky particularly among seniors, a key demographic group of Trump supporters. Biden leads Trump among voters 65 and older in several national polls.

At the same time, Trump seeks to link Biden to more liberal elements of the Democratic Party such as the “defund the police” movement. Biden has said he supports redirecting some police funding to address mental health or to change the prison system.

The gambit is part of Trump’s larger “culture war” against what he describes as a push by American political liberals to wage a “merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.”

Another attack line likely to pick up steam closer to the election is to raise fears about what a “Biden, Pelosi, Schumer America will look like,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin to VOA, referring to Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“The European style of democracy has historically been unpopular across the U.S. and I believe he will begin to compare how a Biden presidency will change America for the worse forever, and that he is the only man left to defend American-style capitalism,” Coughlin said.

Campaigning on “us vs them” to a nation highly polarized around party ideology can be a very powerful way to mobilize your base, said Omar Wasow of Princeton. But while Trump is masterful at harnessing identity politics, stoking both fear and national pride, his political base in 2020 may not be large enough to carry him to victory. “If he doesn’t do some outreach to some of the moderate swing voters, there’s a reasonable chance he’ll lose,” Wasow said.

The past three months of national turmoil have shown much can happen between now and the election.

“An October vaccine discovery would be the ultimate October surprise,” said Wilson, referring to the possibility that a last-minute development will sway the early November election. “If unemployment dips back into single digits, if you have the Dow above 30,000 — all those things would create and completely change the scenario of what we’d be looking at in the fall.”

Wilson said that any of those scenarios can happen, and it would probably take a combination of them to ensure a Trump victory. “But that’s historically the case with any presidential election.”

This article was originally published here.

Trump has 100 days to turn things around
By Jonathan Easley
The Hill, Published 07/26/2020

“If the election were today, Democrats would be in a pretty strong position to sweep most, if not all of the critical elections. The problem is the election is not today,” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “There’s too much uncertainty to credibly believe this election is somehow in the bag.”

Still, Trump has seen his support erode in recent months among the groups that powered his 2016 run.

“The polling is challenging right now, but this is a terrible environment with COVID-19 and the economy suffering from the effects of shutdowns,” said Chris Wilson, a GOP pollster and president of WPA Intelligence. “Polls are always a snapshot in time, but I think you really need to think about where the environment will be in October in interpreting the polls today. If there’s a marked improvement in the pandemic, then today’s polling may not mean a lot in two or three months.”

Read the full article here.