“Those numbers are going up, and more people are doing it in Oklahoma. I think it’s a matter of getting used to the idea of, hey, this is still easy way to do it and it makes it simpler for them, and they don’t have to wait in line by and large.”
News
WPAi’s Kyle Loveless talks about an analysis of early ballots in Oklahoma
Oklahoman Primary Elections Super Tuesday 2024
An analysis of early ballots in Oklahoma shows that Republicans are becoming more likely to vote early instead of just on election day.
Kyle Loveless with WPA Intelligence wrote on Tuesday that historically, Democrats have been the most reliable early voters, but the past two election cycles have shown that the GOP is making gains with mail-in and in-person absentee voting.
According to voting data, about 46% more Republicans are showing up early for this election than during the 2022 primaries.
“The adage that the GOP in Oklahoma was resistant to early voting or mail-in voting may have gone the way of the Yellow Pages,” Loveless wrote. “The conventional wisdom has been that Democrats in Oklahoma have rallied and have thrived in early voting. These past two elections are indicators that the GOP is now rallying to the idea that in-person absentee and even mail-in traditional absentee ballots are safe for your vote, relative to any other form of voting.”
WPAi’s Kyle Loveless discusses low Super Tuesday voter turnout with Oklahoma’s News9.
Kyle Loveless works with WPA Intelligence analyzing polling data and he says the lack of competition could be the reason for a dip in voter turnout. “Rewind back to 2016 when it was a wide-open primary of presidential campaigns, you saw a little bit more activity,” Loveless said.
Additionally, data he shared with News 9 shows another trend shift in the 2024 primaries. “What we’ve seen so far in early voting is something that goes counter to what conventional wisdom has been,” Loveless said.
He says traditionally, Oklahoma Republicans are wary of early and absentee voting. “Primarily democrats have seemed to be the party that have embraced non-traditional voting whether that be in person or mail in balloting,” Loveless explained.
But that’s not the case with this cycle. “In person and absentee voting that just concluded yesterday, according to the state election board, republicans are dominating,” Loveless said.
WPAi’s Kyle Loveless on News9 Discusses Polling Methods & OKC’s Proposed New NBA Arena
“When you look at their survey, they only surveyed 82 people,” Kyle Loveless with WPA Intelligence said.
He says he believes there are many reasons to be skeptical of those numbers, which were taken as a subset of nearly 500 polled statewide.
He adds that the survey doesn’t appear to verify whether those in the subset are all within city limits.
“They used a shotgun approach when they need to be using a scalpel,” Loveless said. “They didn’t take likely voters. They didn’t take registered voters.”
He also questions the methodology used.
“They used a technology called IVR, which can only be used on landlines,” Loveless said. “Well, in Oklahoma, that’s only 20 percent of the people.”
The smaller sample size also pushes the margin of error to plus or minus 10 percent for an election date with historically low turnout.
WPAi’s Kyle Loveless on News9 Discusses OKC Special Election
“A December special election in Oklahoma City doesn’t happen very often. Kyle Loveless with WPA Intelligence says it could be considered a double-edged sword.
‘The plus side is it gets people to focus on it. The downside is that not that many people are focused on it,’ he said.He believes this date was warranted because of the project size and the way it would be funded.’
It’ll be up to the campaigns on both sides – those that are for it to get out their message and those are against it to get out their message,’ he said.”
Chris Wilson on Mornings With Maria
Chris Wilson joined Mornings With Maria to discuss the state of the GOP race and the fact 60% of GOP primary voters are looking to vote for a candidate other than Donald Trump. This is a two person race between Ron DeSantis and Trump.
WPA Intelligence Releases 40+ New Data Dictionary Models
WPA Intelligence is proud to announce the release of our newest set of industry-leading political models, now available for purchase on Bonfire. These models represent the culmination of extensive research, development, and rigorous testing to bring you the most accurate and comprehensive political data on the market today.
The new models provide segmentation across a wide range of topics including views on President Biden, opinions on Congressional priorities, perspectives on international aid, preferences for Republican candidates and factions (e.g. dramatic disruptor vs experienced strategist, MAGA, Establishment Conservative, etc.) party switchers, religious affiliation, and opinions on key issues like abortion and Donald Trump’s role in the GOP.
In total, this release includes over 40 new Data Dictionary models encompassing voter sentiments, priorities, affiliations, and behaviors. As always, our models are subjected to rigorous methodology, transparency, and ongoing accuracy testing.
If you’d like to discuss which model(s) would work best for your effort, contact us today!
See our full list of cutting-edge models here.
Available for license and integration through Bonfire today!
GA Statewide Poll Crosstabulations
GA Statewide Poll Crosstabulations
WPA Intelligence recently conducted a survey of n=629 Republican primary voters statewide in Georgia. This survey has a margin of error of +/-4%.