Chris Wilson, WPA Intelligence: “Based on initial returns it appears rural VA voted heavily Gillespie but didn’t turn out at the same elevated rates they did for Trump. It that holds true, it’s significant. At this point I’m not sure if it means the campaign didn’t turn them out or they weren’t motivated and couldn’t be turned out, but it certainly points to the conclusion that 2018 will be a turnout—not a persuasion—election.

In Texas, there are 2,068,746 voters who don’t plan to turnout in 2018 but will vote for Gov. Greg Abbott if they do. We, the Abbott campaign, are already running a turnout operation at those voters. In Nevada, there are 45,137 for Adam Laxalt. Any campaign that can’t tell you their turnout target number is likely going to lose.”

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