media

China Is Going to Be a Big Issue in the 2020 Campaign. But What Does That Mean?
By Ben Jacobs
New York Magazine, Published 06/23/2020

Democrats are sensitive to some of these concerns, particularly at a time where Trump is openly referring to the coronavirus as the “kung flu” at campaign rallies. As Ian Sams, a Democratic strategist who advises Navigator Research, warned, “I think you have to be careful how you talk about this. You don’t want to encourage racist or xenophobic tropes or stereotypes.” This concern was echoed by Bannon. “I do think the left has got a point [about being careful about language],” the former Trump strategist told Intelligencer. “This is not about China or the Chinese people. This is about the Chinese Communist Party.”

However, it’s still unclear how much U.S.-China policy motivates voters and whether there are many single-issue voters on the issue. In data obtained by Intelligencer from WPA Intelligence, a top Republican data firm, modeling shows that 21 percent of the electorate could be moved by a campaign message focused on “holding China accountable.” However, it would be counterproductive for 23 percent of voters. In particular, in the key Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the rhetoric shows mixed effectiveness. In Michigan, 16 percent of voters would be responsive to a “tough on China” message and 12 percent would recoil, and in Pennsylvania, those numbers are 29 percent and 28 percent. But in Wisconsin, such a message would resonate with only 8 percent of voters and be counterproductive with 25 percent of the electorate.

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The other reason to restart rallies: Trump #MAGA events are voter data gold mines
By David M. Drucker
Washington Examiner, Published 06/16/2020

Trump’s high-wattage stadium rallies are intricately choreographed political revivals, with the president’s habit of ad-libbing provocative comments often sparking days of public discussion. But underneath the hood, the Trump campaign is using interest in the “#MAGA” events to gather reams of granular data on voters. That information, in turn, is used to recruit grassroots volunteers, test messaging, and decide how and where to invest in manpower and money to increase the president’s vote share.

“The rally lists are an invaluable source of data that help power volunteer efforts and small-dollar fundraising,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster and data consultant who advised the Ted Cruz presidential campaign four years ago.

“You have people who have already gone out there and taken a public action to support the president,” Wilson explained. “Those folks are a lot more likely to continue doing things than are your typical list targets who have just signed up as supporters online.”

Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally this Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma — his first since mid-March, when in-person political activities were suspended because of the coronavirus. Capacity at the arena, Bank of Oklahoma Center, is just under 20,000. But Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale bragged Monday in a Twitter post that more than 1 million people submitted an RSVP to attend the event.

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Reopening the Economy Now Is Donald Trump’s Last Hope of Entering the 2020 Election With Good GDP Data
By Shane Croucher and James Walker
Newsweek, Published 05/28/2020

President Donald Trump’s push for states to swiftly reopen may be the best chance he has of entering the 2020 election with positive economic data and, if the rebound is strong, some of the largest numbers on record.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of third quarter GDP data on October 29, less than a week before America votes. June is the final month of the second quarter during which analysts expect the economy to contract by around 40 percent.

If the U.S. economy has substantially reopened by July, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate could reach above 20 percent, per some of the more optimistic forecasts, offering a vital boost to the Trump campaign in what is shaping up to be a close-fought election.

“It’s probably a game-changer for the president, and I think you could see the race tighten immediately, if not Trump moving into the lead because of that,” Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence and a Republican strategist, told Newsweek.

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Biden’s VP search puts spotlight on how long he’ll serve
By Will Weissert
The Associated Press, Published 05/17/2020

There’s also no guarantee that Biden’s running mate will be the immediate president-in-waiting he envisions. Biden has pledged to pick a woman, but virtually no one under active consideration is likely to satisfy all Democrats. That raises the prospect of a primary battle in 2024 if he steps aside.

Republican pollster Chris Wilson said Biden might elevate several younger Democrats to Cabinet positions to deliberately set up “almost a hand-picked primary pool rather than a single candidate he tries to hand things off to.”

That, Wilson said, “would still be the kind of legacy-building move he seems to be interested in.”

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Poll: Sisolak praised, but Nevadans want virus shutdown to end
By Colton Lochhead
Las Vegas Review-Journal, Published 05/07/2020

The Nevada Poll™, conducted for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com by WPA Intelligence, found 64 percent of Nevadans support Sisolak’s approach to the pandemic and his handling of the shutdown of nonessential businesses across the state, compared with 28 percent who disapprove.

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters in Nevada from May 2-5, with party demographics of the respondents mirroring Nevada’s voter registration breakdown of 33 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat and 29 percent as nonpartisan or third-party voters. Its margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted after Sisolak announced the extension of his closure order to May 15, but before his Thursday announcement that the state’s first phase of reopening would occur before May 15.

Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence, said the Nevada results were consistent with the support seen in other states for their respective governors.

“There’s support for the governor, and almost a patriotism within the state about how the state can band together,” Wilson said.

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Trump takes underdog role in campaign against Biden
By Jonathan Easley
The Hill, Published 05/06/2020

Trump’s allies acknowledge that they face an uphill climb, with polls showing Biden leading nationally and in key battleground states. If the economy does not prove to be as resilient as Trump claims, the election is all but lost, campaign insiders say.

But Republicans believe Trump may have bottomed out amid the pandemic and there will be opportunities to sell an economic recovery and to damage Biden, who has kept a low profile since the coronavirus outbreak first hit.

“The polling right now doesn’t look great, but we’re seeing a snapshot taken at the most stressful moment of COVID-19 plus economic shutdown,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster and president of WPA Intelligence.

Wilson said the president’s team knows it needs to get the economy going but added that opening it up won’t guarantee activity. As for Biden, he said there are negatives there, but the twin economic and health crises create a difficult environment for the president.

“Joe Biden has enough negatives that the Trump team will have no problem finding one that works,” he said, “but the political environment needs to be there for Biden’s negatives to swing the race.”

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