GOP poll reassuring for Trump in key states but offers warning about Michigan
By David M. Drucker
May 11, 2019
President Trump holds critical advantages in a collection of key 2020 battlegrounds, according to fresh data from a Republican pollster.
Trump’s approval rating was 50% or higher in four of six states tested — Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Texas — and 49% in Wisconsin. In Texas, Trump led Democrat Beto O’Rourke, a former congressman from El Paso vying for his party’s presidential nomination, in a hypothetical matchup. In Iowa, a perennial swing state, Trump topped former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic front-runner. In both states, the president garnered the support of 49% of poll respondents.
The survey, commissioned by an industry advocacy group and provided to the Washington Examiner, revealed a few red flags for Trump, mostly in Michigan, whose Electoral College votes are crucial to the president’s reelection prospects.
There, the president’s job approval was 45%, with 50% disapproving. Meanwhile, Trump was supported by a paltry 42% of poll respondents when asked to choose between him and Biden. Additionally, only a plurality, 47%, approved of the job Trump is doing on “securing fair trade deals,” a key issue in the Midwest. In each of the other five states tested, Trump scored at least 50% approval on that question.
The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters April 27-30 across Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. It was conducted by WPA Intelligence on behalf of Americans for Fair Skies, a political nonprofit urging the federal government to enforce trade agreements related to the airline industry. WPA Intelligence advised Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, during his 2016 campaign.
Overall, the margin of error was 2.8 percentage points, a figure generally considered reliable. However, each state measured, with a sample of 200 likely voters, had a relatively high margin of error of 6.9 points. Americans for Fair Skies purposely commissioned this poll of states important to Trump’s reelection in a bid to catch the president’s attention on a trade dispute American carriers are embroiled in with airlines being subsidized by Qatar.
That’s why the poll asked, “Do you support or oppose efforts to ensure the federal government takes strong and immediate action to stop Qatar Airways from violating this international agreement that gives them an advantage over U.S. airlines and is putting American jobs at stake?”
Sixty-six percent of respondents said they would support such efforts.
But beyond this sort of industry-specific data, the poll included a trove of information that could offer clues about 2020. For instance:
- Across Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, Trump’s approval is strongest among Republicans (91%), conservatives (82%), and voters without a college education making less than $75,000 (59%).”
- Across the same states, Trump’s approval with rural voters was 54%; was 49% with suburban voters; weak with “moderates” — a low 29%; and a respectable 46% with independents.
- In a potential matchup with Biden, Trump led in Florida 48% – 44%; in Iowa 49% – 44%; in Texas 49% – 42%; and in Wisconsin 46% – 42%. However, Biden topped Trump in Michigan 45% – 42%, and in Pennsylvania, where the former vice president launched his campaign, 46% – 45%.