media

Conor Maguire Promoted to Principal and Managing Director
By Chris Wilson, Partner and CEO
August 17, 2020

Today, WPA Intelligence, a national leader in survey research, predictive analytics and data science, is pleased to announce the promotion of Conor Maguire to the role of Principal and Managing Director. His years of experience in leading client strategy as well as research and data science teams will continue to serve our clients at WPAi.

In 2017, Maguire joined WPAi after three election cycles in the Republican National Committee’s Data Division. Maguire served the RNC as the Director of External Support, working to directly implement the GOP’s state-of-the-art data program across the country and within major campaigns up and down the ballot. Maguire also served as the data liaison to the Trump for President campaign, facilitating the flow of information and deployment of critical resources, contributing significantly to a banner election year which saw the Republican Party win the White House while maintaining majorities in both chambers of Congress.

In addition to Maguire’s tenure at the national party committee, he has worked on competitive campaigns across the country, lending him the critical experience of on-the-ground campaigning coupled with the implementation of data-driven programs at all levels of politics.

“Conor Maguire has earned the right to be a Principal of our firm, and Managing Director of our DC office. He has quickly become a leader of our team”, said Chris Wilson, WPAi’s CEO. “Our continued commitment to serving our clients with the most sophisticated polling, data analytics and technology solutions, paired with unrivaled strategic guidance, is bolstered by Conor’s work. Conor’s years at WPAi and extensive experience with the RNC provide him with exceptional credentials that will continue to be invaluable for our clients in the political, public affairs, and corporate space.”

Maguire added, “Having worked on critical races up and down the ticket, I know what it takes to win. WPAi brings to the table a unique and succinct approach to traditional polling by incorporating an intelligent use of data. I am eager to continue to deliver unparalleled insights and to lead our clients to victory.”

See the announcement in Politico here.

Key Takeaways from Trump’s Evolving Campaign Strategy
By Patsy Widakuswara
VOA, Published July 31, 2020

WASHINGTON – With several polls showing Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden leading the U.S. presidential race nationally, in battleground states and among key demographics, President Donald Trump’s campaign is seeking a more effective strategy to win over voters.

After spending weeks pushing to reopen the economy, the president now appears to be acknowledging the coronavirus pandemic will continue to drive news cycles through the final 100 days of the campaign.

Here are a few key takeaways from Trump’s evolving re-election strategy.

Refocus on pandemic

Polls indicate that public approval for the president’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is falling to a new low — with just around one third of Americans supporting his approach which emphasizes reopening.

In the past two weeks, the president has returned to making regular appearances before journalists, putting himself forward as spokesperson for his administration’s response to the pandemic.

The president has canceled the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville, Florida, because of the growing COVID-19 outbreak there. He also acknowledged that some schools may need to delay their reopening, and has recommended Americans wear masks in public.

Republican strategists say it’s an admission that the president has few options but to refocus his attention on the pandemic.

“It’s really difficult as a campaign to focus on a message when there’s nothing else you can talk about than what is on the minds of really of everybody in America,” said Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence in an interview.

Staying “on message” is how politicians traditionally have helped build support for their causes, but Trump has long had a more freewheeling political style. On Monday this week he returned to his emphasis on ending the lockdowns in some states.

“I really do believe a lot of the governors should be opening up states that are not opening,” Trump said during a visit to a vaccine development facility in North Carolina. “We’ll see what happens with them.”

By Thursday, he again appeared to have reversed himself on the severity of the pandemic.

He suggested that the November elections should be delayed to ensure people can safely vote in person, even though the Constitution allows only Congress to schedule elections. Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders rejected the suggestion and vowed the election will be held as scheduled.

Renew push on vaccines and therapeutics

Both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence visited vaccine development facilities this week as the White House pressed its message that the nation is close to defeating COVID-19.

During a coronavirus press briefing on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. is on track to “rapidly produce” 100 million doses as soon as a vaccine is approved “which could be very, very soon.” He said 500 million doses will be available “shortly thereafter.”

There are currently more than 100 scientific groups around the world trying to make vaccines, including Pfizer and BioNTech which have started large-scale trials in the United States. But most experts agree that having a safe and reliable vaccine available before the November election is unlikely.

“There is progress on a number of fronts,” said William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “We’re optimistic, but everything has to go well in vaccine development.”

While a vaccine is under development, the president is still pushing other treatments aimed at reducing the severity of COVID-19. This week he again championed hydroxychloroquine — an anti-malaria drug that Trump and his allies have been pushing as a COVID-19 treatment.

So far there is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine helps to prevent COVID-19 infection, said former Food and Drug Associate Commissioner and co-founder of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest, Peter Pitts. However Pitts told VOA recent studies have shown that it may help shorten hospital time for patients who suffer from serious manifestations of the virus.

Analysts say that Trump advisers see messaging on vaccines and therapeutics as the quickest way to restore confidence in the president.

“The plan is to present certain drugs that are unproven as useful therapeutics until they have a vaccine,” said Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics to VOA.

Sabato said the lack of scientific data to support the claim is immaterial. “For Trump supporters, he is their source of information.”

Continue “law and order” approach to US protests

With Black Lives Matter rallies and protests continuing in many cities across the United States, the vast majority of them peaceful, the president has also sharpened his attacks on what he has called “radical left anarchists” and the danger they allegedly pose to the country.

“This bloodshed must end, this bloodshed will end,” Trump said.

In Portland, local officials blamed the presence of federal law enforcement officers for worsening conflicts with protesters. After days of clashes, the city struck an agreement for the federal troops to withdraw.

But analysts see the larger standoff continuing, with the Trump campaign arguing that cities with regular protests are in fact in chaos and need a “law and order” commander in chief, said Omar Wasow, a professor of race and ethnic politics at Princeton University.

“Trump is working in a tradition that we’ve seen internationally, of using conflict as a way to try and mobilize your side,” Wasow told VOA, pointing to Trump campaign advertisements using footage of the protests to portray Biden as soft on crime.

“Clearly, they think it’s a good campaign issue for them,” Wasow said.

Settle on a Biden Strategy

Traditionally, presidential campaigns kick into high gear and intensify attacks on their opponents after the Republican and Democratic conventions in August, and as the candidates meet on the debate stage.

“Biden has his share of controversies and he’s been around a long time, but he is not a clear image in the minds of most voters,” said Larry Sabato. “Trump’s goal in the debates and in his advertising, is to dirty up Biden, to make him appear as unsavory as Donald Trump appears to be unsavory to millions of people.”

So far there are two main attack themes; that “Sleepy Joe” Biden is mentally unfit to be president and that he won’t keep Americans safe against crime and lawlessness.

A recent poll finds that 52% of voters are somewhat confident that Biden has the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job of president compared to 45% for Trump. However, more are likely to say they feel very confident about Trump (33%) than Biden (23%).

“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters. This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

But the strategy of a 74-year-old incumbent attacking his 77-year-old challenger is risky particularly among seniors, a key demographic group of Trump supporters. Biden leads Trump among voters 65 and older in several national polls.

At the same time, Trump seeks to link Biden to more liberal elements of the Democratic Party such as the “defund the police” movement. Biden has said he supports redirecting some police funding to address mental health or to change the prison system.

The gambit is part of Trump’s larger “culture war” against what he describes as a push by American political liberals to wage a “merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.”

Another attack line likely to pick up steam closer to the election is to raise fears about what a “Biden, Pelosi, Schumer America will look like,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin to VOA, referring to Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“The European style of democracy has historically been unpopular across the U.S. and I believe he will begin to compare how a Biden presidency will change America for the worse forever, and that he is the only man left to defend American-style capitalism,” Coughlin said.

Campaigning on “us vs them” to a nation highly polarized around party ideology can be a very powerful way to mobilize your base, said Omar Wasow of Princeton. But while Trump is masterful at harnessing identity politics, stoking both fear and national pride, his political base in 2020 may not be large enough to carry him to victory. “If he doesn’t do some outreach to some of the moderate swing voters, there’s a reasonable chance he’ll lose,” Wasow said.

The past three months of national turmoil have shown much can happen between now and the election.

“An October vaccine discovery would be the ultimate October surprise,” said Wilson, referring to the possibility that a last-minute development will sway the early November election. “If unemployment dips back into single digits, if you have the Dow above 30,000 — all those things would create and completely change the scenario of what we’d be looking at in the fall.”

Wilson said that any of those scenarios can happen, and it would probably take a combination of them to ensure a Trump victory. “But that’s historically the case with any presidential election.”

This article was originally published here.

Trump has 100 days to turn things around
By Jonathan Easley
The Hill, Published 07/26/2020

“If the election were today, Democrats would be in a pretty strong position to sweep most, if not all of the critical elections. The problem is the election is not today,” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “There’s too much uncertainty to credibly believe this election is somehow in the bag.”

Still, Trump has seen his support erode in recent months among the groups that powered his 2016 run.

“The polling is challenging right now, but this is a terrible environment with COVID-19 and the economy suffering from the effects of shutdowns,” said Chris Wilson, a GOP pollster and president of WPA Intelligence. “Polls are always a snapshot in time, but I think you really need to think about where the environment will be in October in interpreting the polls today. If there’s a marked improvement in the pandemic, then today’s polling may not mean a lot in two or three months.”

Read the full article here.

Parent Survey Reveals Strong Support for Online Learning; Growing Concerns Over More School Closures Due to COVID-19
By National Coalition for Public School Options
Webster County Citizen, Published 07/16/2020

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo., July 16, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — A new statewide survey released today finds Missouri parents overwhelmingly support policies that protect and expand access to online public schools as a means to protect the health and safety of families during the pandemic.

These results come as many school districts in Missouri have been denying families the right to choose the best educational option for their child, including by abusing the veto authority over enrollment provided under the Missouri Course Access and Virtual School Program (MOCAP).

The survey revealed that:

79% of parents oppose giving school districts “veto power” over a parent’s decision to enroll their child in a full-time online school: and
75% of parents support the state of Missouri granting emergency waivers for parents who wish to enroll their student in an online public school this fall.
Beyond the broad support for expanded access to online schools, parents are worried about the health impact of schools reopening. 57% of parents said they remained very concerned about risks due to COVID-19, while 75% of respondents anticipate additional school closures in the fall.

These concerns are being translated into significant support for online public schools, with 43% of respondents noting they’d be willing to consider this educational option for their own child. Based on 2019 enrollment data, that would mean more than 390,000 students may not return to their traditional classroom as parents become more familiar with online learning options.

The survey sampled 400 Missouri adults with children at home. The survey was conducted June 28 – July 6, 2020 by WPA Intelligence for the National Coalition for Public School Options (PSO). The survey has a margin of error of ± 4.9%.

Read the full article here.

Trump is in a precarious position for re-election – but he still has a chance
By Daniel Strauss
The Guardian, Published 06/24/2020

To an extent, the Trump campaign has already begun to pivot in its approach. Trump’s campaign has tweaked a key pillar of its message, now promising a “great American comeback” after the catastrophic financial downturn coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.

The economy is a longtime silver bullet for American political campaigns. James Carville, the strategist for Bill Clinton, propagated the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” and for the operatives who see a hidden path for a Trump victory, it’s through the economy.

“If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson.

Read the full article here.

China Is Going to Be a Big Issue in the 2020 Campaign. But What Does That Mean?
By Ben Jacobs
New York Magazine, Published 06/23/2020

Democrats are sensitive to some of these concerns, particularly at a time where Trump is openly referring to the coronavirus as the “kung flu” at campaign rallies. As Ian Sams, a Democratic strategist who advises Navigator Research, warned, “I think you have to be careful how you talk about this. You don’t want to encourage racist or xenophobic tropes or stereotypes.” This concern was echoed by Bannon. “I do think the left has got a point [about being careful about language],” the former Trump strategist told Intelligencer. “This is not about China or the Chinese people. This is about the Chinese Communist Party.”

However, it’s still unclear how much U.S.-China policy motivates voters and whether there are many single-issue voters on the issue. In data obtained by Intelligencer from WPA Intelligence, a top Republican data firm, modeling shows that 21 percent of the electorate could be moved by a campaign message focused on “holding China accountable.” However, it would be counterproductive for 23 percent of voters. In particular, in the key Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the rhetoric shows mixed effectiveness. In Michigan, 16 percent of voters would be responsive to a “tough on China” message and 12 percent would recoil, and in Pennsylvania, those numbers are 29 percent and 28 percent. But in Wisconsin, such a message would resonate with only 8 percent of voters and be counterproductive with 25 percent of the electorate.

Read the full article here.

The other reason to restart rallies: Trump #MAGA events are voter data gold mines
By David M. Drucker
Washington Examiner, Published 06/16/2020

Trump’s high-wattage stadium rallies are intricately choreographed political revivals, with the president’s habit of ad-libbing provocative comments often sparking days of public discussion. But underneath the hood, the Trump campaign is using interest in the “#MAGA” events to gather reams of granular data on voters. That information, in turn, is used to recruit grassroots volunteers, test messaging, and decide how and where to invest in manpower and money to increase the president’s vote share.

“The rally lists are an invaluable source of data that help power volunteer efforts and small-dollar fundraising,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster and data consultant who advised the Ted Cruz presidential campaign four years ago.

“You have people who have already gone out there and taken a public action to support the president,” Wilson explained. “Those folks are a lot more likely to continue doing things than are your typical list targets who have just signed up as supporters online.”

Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally this Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma — his first since mid-March, when in-person political activities were suspended because of the coronavirus. Capacity at the arena, Bank of Oklahoma Center, is just under 20,000. But Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale bragged Monday in a Twitter post that more than 1 million people submitted an RSVP to attend the event.

Read the full article here.