No earth-shattering news on the campaign trail this week, just ordinarily frantic campaign action. As a result, the public polling has had a chance to catch up. We are going to take advantage of that to walk through the ‘state of the race’ this week, both nationally and in some of the battleground states. This is an opportunity to look at some of the demographics we flagged for you all last month and see if the shape of the race is changing.
National Overview
Looking at the race nationally, YouGov has Harris up 2 points. Monmouth shows her leading by 5 points, rooted in a 39-point increase in their tracked ‘voter enthusiasm about the race’ question among Democrats. The Monmouth poll fielded August 8-12, which supports the thesis that the surge in Democratic enthusiasm about the election since Biden stepped down as the candidate is a lasting effect.
Battleground States Focus
Bearing that in mind, let’s focus on the battleground states that will determine the result: In five of those states, the Cook Political Report finds Harris ahead, including North Carolina, with Trump leading in Nevada, and a tie in Georgia. In crucial Pennsylvania, the average margin of public polls is now Harris by less than 2 points, a statistical tie.
Equis Research released toplines for a poll of swing-state Latinos that shows Harris nearly quadrupling Biden’s lead from 5 points to 19 points. While this is a major shift in favor of the Harris campaign, it is still below Biden’s 2020 mark. Perhaps more importantly, it is driven to a notable extent by new voters – and both parties have learned about the volatility in both voter turnout and intent from new voters.
With a few weeks’ worth of data in, it is fair to say that the transition to Harris has salvaged Democratic prospects and returned us to the expected close race.
We will be looking into the Senate races next week – there is a lot to unpack there.
Texas Public Policy Foundation Polling
Some of WPAi’s polling was released by the Texas Public Policy Foundation this week. We were digging into attitudes to education and curriculum. When looking at the appropriate role of religious history and stories in the school curriculum, the polling found nearly two-thirds of Texans (64%) supported “the inclusion of historical religious stories and examples into state-provided curriculum,” while 33% opposed including the stories. Three-quarters (75%) of Black Texans supported it, as did 59% of Hispanic Texans.
We also gave respondents two statements regarding the stories that were currently included in the curriculum and asked them to choose which statement came closer to their opinion. One statement said, “people say that knowledge of religious stories from different faiths can provide students with a greater understanding of the development of Western culture, art, and history.” The other statement said, “other people say that providing passages from the Bible in state schools has the potential for religious indoctrination.” Fifty-eight percent (58%) of respondents said the religious stories gave students a greater understanding, while just a quarter (25%) said they had the potential for religious indoctrination. Changes in attitudes to education since the outbreak of COVID-19 are a book-length topic, and we may return to that at greater length when time and the election allow.
Want to talk about the data more in-depth? We’re here to talk.
Alex Muir (amuir@wpaintel.com)
Amanda Iovino (aiovino@wpaintel.com)
Conor Maguire (cmaguire@wpaintel.com)