Another week gone already, and there are a few points to touch on today. We’re now a few days out from the first debate between Trump and Harris. The first and potentially most important time we will see these two Presidential candidates face-to-face live and in person. These are always important events, and this one even more so than usual.
Trump is a brand so complete as to be the envy of marketing experts everywhere. This sets expectations for Trump and allows him an opportunity to demonstrate the pugnaciousness and honed mockery his supporters adore. It also means he has some latitude if he has a mediocre night – barring a total disaster, his brand will carry him through.
Harris has a steeper hill to climb. She has a much softer and less well-defined image with the public, and her path to victory depends on her ability to solidify that definition. She needs to look like she measures up to Trump as an adversary. If she seems overmatched or nervous it will complicate her ability to lock in the audiences who have been leaning toward her since she was named the nominee.
The debate takes place as Harris’ lead in a national polling aggregation has slid from +3.7 to +3.1 . That is probably closer to a +2 among likely voters. At the moment, it is probably fair to say that Harris has a narrow lead in the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and crucial Pennsylvania with the other battlegrounds being too close to call. With the largest lead in any of these battlegrounds being ~3% in Wisconsin, this is another way to say that all 7 battlegrounds are inside the margin of error in polling and could move in any direction with a few 10s of thousands of votes.
We’re going to take a look at Absentee and Mail-in voting requests next week, as that process is now underway.
August fundraising numbers are in for the Presidential campaigns, and the Harris team generated a prodigious $361 million last month. Always, bear in mind that campaign fundraising reports show the gross, not the net. Small-dollar fundraising is often at or near break-even, showing cash flow but little net income. So, until we see the actual report, let’s take the topline number with a grain of salt. That cautionary note given; this kind of money likely means that resources are available for the Harris campaign to chase any voters they need to in key states. For a clear example of this AdImpact shows a $168 million advantage in ad reservations in the battleground states:
We’ve mentioned before that a number of key Senate races have major fundraising gaps in favor of the Democratic campaigns. In Arizona, Gallego (D) enjoys a 3:1 fundraising advantage over Lake (R). ButLake saw a major infusion of outside cash this week. The third-party PAC Win it Back has announced a $12 million ad buy to make up much of that media share gap. Keep an eye on similar efforts in other key races to make up for campaign-side fundraising shortfalls.
It’s also worth noting that a North Carolina court has ordered Kennedy’s name removed from ballots just before they were to be sent.
We have to touch on the issue of foreign involvement/interference in the American information space this week in light of the dramatic indictment against two Russian citizens (employees of the Russia Today network). The DoJ alleges the two funneled money into an American company, now identified as Tenet Media, to pay for content favorable to Russia/in line with Russian priorities. This follows closely on the heels of an indictment that alleges a former aide to New York governors Hochul and Cuomo was a Chinese spy. It is worth considering just how open the American system is to outside money and influence, and how cheap a few million dollars is to a long list of foreign states and interests. These indictments are not likely to be the last of their kind.
Finally, we want to (re)share our Voter Targeting Game Plans. Not every race has millions to spend on tv, or the funds for custom modeling projects, but professionals still want to make sure they’re spending their money effectively. Starting at $2,500 for a Congressional District, $1,000 for a State Legislative District or County Seat, and $500 for a School Board District, these Game Plans provide basic turnout, net party models, and a relevant issue model for each campaign. We also provide recommendations for how to use each universe and the contact information you’ll need to execute your voter contact plans.
Want to talk about the data more in-depth? We’re here to talk.
Alex Muir (amuir@wpaintel.com)
Amanda Iovino (aiovino@wpaintel.com)
Conor Maguire (cmaguire@wpaintel.com)