Ready to Deploy: SCOTUS Model

By: Matthew Knee

In God we trust. All others must bring data.

As we mourn the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, it is crucial for campaigns to focus on a new, high-profile and highly motivational issue that has arisen 45 days before the election: the nomination and confirmation of a new justice.

WPAi has the most extensive library of issue-specific modeling in the industry, and we are ready to deploy our preexisting SCOTUS Model to help candidates and campaigns navigate this issue, while we work to build models to assess the specifics of the vacancy, nomination, and surrounding issues.

WPAi’s existing model was developed during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight based on the following question:

Thinking about President Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, Judge Kavanaugh, are you more likely to vote for a U.S. senator who supports the President’s Supreme Court nominee, more likely to vote for a U.S. senator who opposes the President’s nominee, or is a U.S. senator’s position on whether they support the President’s nominee to the Supreme Court not something that will affect your vote?

While the circumstances differ from the Kavanaugh confirmation, understanding voter sentiment about confirming a conservative justice and identifying the strongest supporters of that confirmation are just as critical today.

Using this SCOTUS Model, campaigns can energize current voters while also identifying, targeting and mobilizing voters who do not score as likely to turnout in 2020.

Specific to mobilizing and increasing base turnout: an overlay of our Model with turnout targets (as seen below in SCOTUS Targets and SCOTUS x GOTV) can help a campaign activate critical voters to vote early or vote when they would not have otherwise turned out at all.


THE SCOTUS MODEL IS BUILT AND READY FOR DEPLOYMENT ON BONFIRE.

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